Pennsylvania could be the single most important state when the 2020 US election begins on the 3rd of November. According to research from fivethirtyeight.com released last week, it has a 31% chance of being the ‘tipping point state’ for the Democrats or the Republicans, and the rumors seem to add up.
Only last week, Presidential hopeful Joe Biden laid out answers to a host of core questions that he faced during televised and remote events in Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has already addressed local concerns during a town hall event in the area and hosted a rally in the battleground state last August.
But what makes it a key part of both campaigns?
The Keystone of the Electoral College
The nickname ‘the Keystone State’ has never been so apt. Since 2004, Pennsylvania has unlocked the door of the White House for the Republicans, turning it from a historical blue battleground to a red one. Data highlighted on the realclearpolitics.com platform shows that PA gives Trump an 86% chance of a second term if he takes the win.
However, it may be surprising to hear that Biden has even better stats if he manages to land a victorious blow on home turf, as the former VP has a 96% chance of winning if Pennsylvania goes blue. If you’re wondering why PA is integral to either party, it’s the twenty seats on offer in the Electoral College.
Despite the fact that a once Democratic state signaled last year that its loyalties lay elsewhere, the region is split down the middle. While the majority of registered voters are Democrats, Trump won in 2016 thanks to his voter base. In PA, key Trump demographics are up 6% to 44%.
Business and Economy
Trump runs on a strategy of job creation and law and order, two things that are putting his re-election campaign under scrutiny at the moment. However, Pennsylvania is a shining light for the Republican party.
This year, Pennsylvania is one state that seems to show a positive trend for businesses. A list of PA online casinos at bonusfinder.com shows that online casinos need to have land-based partners and pay $10 million for the license fees. Not only is the physical industry valued at $3bn, but there are twelve digital casinos in the state and a further five more expected before the end of December, which is a massive economic boost.
Also, kallanishenergy.com says the state’s cap-and-trade carbon plan should create 30,000 jobs and boost the state’s gross state product by $1.9 billion. These trends could prove to be a big help in the decision-making of many.
The Polls
Winning isn’t enough for the Democratic party. Many believe that Biden must win back PA and former blue wall states that Trump took in 2016. If they are to regain the White House, cementing the inevitable majorities in New York and California isn’t enough as the Electoral College is more complicated.
While the polls make for pleasant reading for Democrats, Pennsylvania is a major worry when Biden’s lead is down to 4.2 points against a national average of 7.5.
If Donald Trump can reaffirm his base through economic growth, the incumbent President could very likely hold on to power. However, if he fails to convince the PA public, the election could be Biden’s for the taking.
