Caribbean Development Research Services (CADRES) analyzes the political situation in St. Kitts

ST. KITTS – Against the background of speculation regarding the outcome of the next general election, which is anticipated shortly, Caribbean Development Research Services (CADRES) conducted a survey of public opinion in St Kitts during the last two weeks in November. Like all previous CADRES surveys in St. Kitts, this is based on 800 interviews conducted in all eight constituencies on the mainland and is designed to achieve a margin of error of +/- 5% at the national level.

The survey measured public political opinion using party support and change of government indicators and concluded that at present the St Kitts and Nevis Labour Party (SKNLP) government has been able to mitigate the anticipated negative swing associated with a fourth term. The current CADRES projection therefore is that if an election were called in November, the national electoral swing would have been 1% in favour of the SKNLP which would have retained all the seats it previously held, but that it would not have gained any additional seats.

Specifically, the poll revealed that 48% of persons indicated that they would support the SKNLP, while 29% promised to support the People’s Action Movement (PAM), with 1% indicating a preference for other parties or individuals. Some 22% of persons interviewed refused to answer the political question when asked, which is not unusual in surveys of this nature.
In response to the question on the change of government, in November half of the electorate (50%) said that they did not wish to see a change of government at this time, while 32% expressed the desire to see the government changed. It is noteworthy that the desire to change the government is now lower than it was at the time that the last public opinion survey was conducted in St. Kitts by CADRES (July 2009).

The survey also indicated that Kittians are now more ready than ever before for a general election. Some 62% of persons interviewed stated that they are ready for a general election now (this year) while 30% said they would prefer to have the election in the New Year. It is noteworthy that the Douglas Administration’s Parliamentary term ends automatically on the 16th of December and elections would have to be held within 90 days of that date.

CADRES believes it is important to stress that this survey of public opinion was conducted based on existing boundaries which continued to be legally applicable at the time that the interviews were conducted. CADRES is fully aware of ongoing efforts to introduce new boundaries into Parliament and if this is successful then we believe that the political scenario would change, due not only to the re-location of voters, but also due to the possible negative or positive reactions thereto. The foregoing assessment is; however, an accurate reflection of public political opinion at this juncture.