GEORGETOWN, Guyana -The current crisis in the Middle East could lead to a number of capacity constraints in the supply chain of goods destined for the Caribbean region due to the priority carriers will give to higher demand routes resulting in limited space availability, booking restrictions in smaller markets, increased operational costs and demand imbalance.
This was the view expressed by Ms. Ashley Van Lange, Operations Manager of RAMPS Logistics (Guyana) in her presentation at the World Trade Centre Georgetown forum on the Middle East Crisis: Implications for Global Trade and the Supply Chain held recently.
Here is the text of Ms. Van Lange’s statement:
Opening Statement:
This week has seen a surge in commentary across the global logistics industry, with many suggesting that recent developments in the Middle East could trigger immediate and severe disruptions to international shipping.
While the situation is evolving and carriers are responding with precautionary measures, the reality—particularly for Caribbean trade lanes—is far more measured. It is critical to distinguish between global headlines and the actual, immediate impact on our region before making reactive decisions.
Understanding the Core Issue
The current geopolitical tension centers around conflict in the Middle East, particularly affecting transit through the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Gulf region—one of theworld’s most critical maritime corridors.
Approximately 20% of the world’s daily oil supply, along with significant volumes of fertilizers and energy-related commodities, move through this route. As such, it is widely recognized as a major global oil choke point.
However, the key question for Caribbean markets is not whether this route is important globally—but how directly it impacts our trade flows.
Why the Caribbean Impact Is Limited (For Now)
To properly assess risk, we must consider the following:
- Trade and transit routes
- Transshipment hubs
- Cargo types
- Destination markets
Majority of the cargo moving through the Gulf region consists of energy commodities and raw materials destined primarily for Eastern markets. These are not the same cargo types or supply chains that dominate Caribbean imports.
Although major global carriers such as Maersk, CMA CGM, MSC, and Hapag-Lloyd operate through these regions, the vessels and cargo deployed on Middle East routes differ significantly from those servicing the Caribbean.
As a result, direct disruption to Caribbean-bound cargo remains limited at this stage.
The Real Risk: Rising Fuel Costs
Where the Caribbean will feel a more immediate impact is through rising bunker fuel prices.
Oil prices have surged from approximately $70 per barrel to over $100, driven by instability in the region. Fuel represents one of the largest operating costs for both ocean and air carriers, meaning increases are quickly passed through the supply chain.
This is already materializing.
As of this morning, UAL announced an emergency bunker surcharge for its Caribbean shuttle service:
- USD $200 per FCL container
- USD $10 per weight/measure (W/M) for breakbulk cargo
This is likely the first of several cost adjustments across carriers as they respond to sustained fuel volatility.
Secondary Impacts to Watch
Even without direct route disruption, the Caribbean operates within a globally interconnected logistics network, and indirect effects are already emerging:
- Increased Demand on Major Trade Lanes
Strong shipping demand from China and Brazil into the U.S. is putting pressure on vessel capacity.
- Capacity Constraints
Carriers may prioritize higher-demand routes, leading to:
o Limited space availability
o Booking restrictions in smaller markets like the Caribbean
- Rising Freight Rates
Increased operational costs and demand imbalance are likely to result in:
- o Higher freight rates
o Cost passed through to importers and ultimately consumers
Network Adjustments & Longer Transit Times
Potential rerouting or vessel redeployment could:
o Disrupt traditional trade lanes
o Extend transit times
What This Means for the Caribbean
While the Caribbean is less exposed than Gulf-dependent economies such as Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE, it is not insulated.
The key takeaway is this:
The risk is not immediate disruption—but gradual pressure building through cost, capacity, and network shifts.
Conclusion
At present, there is no evidence of severe disruption to Caribbean shipping routes.
However, the situation requires close monitoring and measured response, not reactionary decisions driven by global headlines.
Businesses and logistics stakeholders should focus on:
- Monitoring fuel surcharge developments
- Securing space early amid tightening capacity
- Preparing for incremental cost increases
- Staying informed on carrier network adjustments
In a globally connected supply chain, even distant conflicts can create ripple effects—and those effects are already beginning to surface.
