Much has been made about the likely danger and aftermath of an attack on Cuba by the United States, with very little intelligence to support opinions on the strength or otherwise of the Cuban military. The aged Bay of Pigs hangover has been stretched so long enough that time, modern drone warfare and the effective siege of that island has that minor conflict outcome in tatters.
What is left after that American sponsored encounter with Cuban forces is the Cuban internationalist experiences in Africa, now decades old, and the Grenada invasion in 1983. That invasion was so long ago that a leader of the mass incarceration of opposition figures in Grenada, some with U.S. dual nationality, has been allowed to escape justice while living quietly in the Cayman Islands.
That invasion saw the commander of the Cuban expeditionary force and many others, flee to the Soviet embassy before returning home via Mexico. The remaining Cubans were either killed or imprisoned. Those prisoners were eventually repatriated on a Swissair flight courtesy of the Red Cross upon American agreement at no cost or ransom.
The over 1,200 Cuban exile prisoners from Bay of Bigs were exchanged upon payment of a ransom of tens of millions in medical supplies by the American government after an indirect demand for 500 tractors by Fidel Castro.
The lessons learned from these historical conflicts should be considered with the fact that modern day Cuba has been economically disabled for some time due to absent Soviet and Chinese patrons, and the disadvantage of dated Soviet era military equipment of little use in confrontation with a modern power.
Behind the obsolete equipment are limited front line forces of about 100,000 who are struggling with an unhappy population in the zero power darkness as well as limited fuel for military movement. The much vaunted reserve of irregular troops, many from the Committee for the Defence of the Revolution, are aged and unable to command general support from the hungry that are sweltering in the heat.
Modern Warfare
Modern warfare now appears to mirror the Middle Ages when sieges and battles were often resolved by protracted negotiations, often with religious intermediaries. Nothing new here.
So what now?
The Americans have all the cards.
The obligatory, small, charitable shipments from outsiders are only a pretence of solidarity from those fixated on taking over other countries. They will not be conflict allies.
The old Cuban men in command are hanging on to their few state benefits and archaic Soviet military strategy as their underlings wonder, where is mine? The rank and file would know about the former Angola veteran and civil aviation chief arrested upon discovery of 5 million dollars cash in his house.
The exposure of social networks to a bright, shiny outside world will have many young soldiers listening to their relatives and friends who have fled on flimsy vessels to the promise of a new life, uncluttered by failed communist tropes. It is their leadership that is in trouble not the cannon fodder. This time around it pays to be an underling, unless you were a recent Cuban bodyguard of Maduro in Venezuela.
The people of the United States and Cuba need not worry or hurry.
An era is coming to an end on a platform of their USA choosing.
Venceremos or onwards.
